Three-Field Retention Intelligence

You're watching one signal.
You're missing the other two.

Your platform measures physical output. That's one of three fields that determine whether an athlete stays or disappears. The other two — life structure and declared intent — sit in data you already collect but don't use.

Annual churn you can't explain

~30%

Industry avg. for fitness subscriptions. Users leave with healthy metrics.

Currently diagnosable

Physical output only. Social and intent signals treated as features, not diagnostics.

Detectable with three-field model

3 of 3 fields

Zero new data collection. Diagnostic layer on existing data.

How the score works

The three fields multiply — they don't average.

Each field runs from 0 (collapsed) to 1 (fully healthy). The combined score is the product of all three. This means any single field near zero drags the entire score toward zero — even if the other two are perfect. An athlete with a strong body and clear schedule but no reason to ride isn't "two-thirds okay." They're about to quit.

Average (what most models do)

( 0.90 + 0.90 + 0.20 ) ÷ 3

= 0.67 "Looks okay"

Product (three-field model)

0.90 × 0.90 × 0.20

= 0.162 "Near collapse"

One field failing means the whole system is failing. The product catches what averaging hides.

IS — What is

Physical State

Power, HR, fatigue, output, conditions. The body and the world it meets.

0.88

DO — What they do

Life Structure

Clubs, races, group rides, schedule patterns. Institutional and social behavior.

0.85

SAY — What they say

Declared Intent

Goals set vs completed. Events registered vs ridden. The commitment signal.

0.80

24-Week Retention Timeline

All three fields — combined score reflects overall state

IS

DO

SAY

Combined

At Risk

This is what your platform sees today

One field. Physical output looks healthy.

Detected Events

0.598

Combined Score

IS

0.88

DO

0.85

SAY

0.80

Data you already collect

Zero new infrastructure. Three new signals.

IS — Physical State

Power output / watts

Heart rate data

Ride duration & distance

Elevation / climbing

Speed trends

Training load / TSS

Rest day frequency

Already used for fitness scoring

DO — Life Structure

Group ride participation

Club membership activity

Race / event entries

Social follow / follower changes

Segment attempt frequency

Ride time-of-day patterns

Solo vs. group ride ratio

Collected but used as social features only

SAY — Declared Intent

Goals set vs. completed

Events registered vs. attended

Training plan adherence

Profile / bio updates

Ride title / description activity

Kudos / comment engagement

Challenge sign-up vs. completion

Collected but not used diagnostically

Different collapse, different response

The diagnostic tells you what to do — not just who's at risk.

IS field declining

Physical Degradation

Body is failing. Overtraining, injury risk, or fatigue accumulation. DO and SAY may still be strong — the athlete wants to ride but shouldn't.

↓ Reduce training plan intensity

⟳ Suggest recovery week

⚡ Flag injury risk

Your platform already handles this reasonably well.

DO field declining

Structural Drift

Life structure is pulling away. Group rides dropping, club activity fading, schedule fragmenting. Body is fine. Intent may still be there. The athlete is isolating.

👥 Surface group ride invitations

🏁 Suggest local events or challenges

↔ Prompt schedule flexibility tools

Your platform currently has no trigger for this.

SAY field declining

Meaning Withdrawal

The athlete has stopped declaring intent. Goals unset, events unregistered, engagement with future commitments gone quiet. Body and schedule may look fine. The moon has left orbit.

⏸ Reduce prescription pressure

◯ Surface a reflection moment, not a goal

✓ Validate rest as a legitimate state

Your platform currently has no model for this.

Roadmap

From retention tool to platform differentiator to licensable framework.

Phase 1

Backend Retention Engine

Diagnostic layer on existing data. Product team sees three-field scores across user base. Flags at-risk users by collapse type. Powers targeted interventions. Reduces unexplained churn.

Internal tool — immediate value

→

Phase 2

User-Facing Insights

Simplified three-field view for athletes. "Your body is ready but your schedule is tight this week." Premium feature tier. Differentiates from every competitor who only shows fitness metrics.

Premium feature — subscription value

→

Phase 3

Licensable Framework

IS–DO–SAY applies anywhere users engage over time: fitness, education, workplace, health. Three-field retention intelligence as a licensable diagnostic layer for any engagement platform.

Platform play — market expansion

Test

You're watching one signal.You're missing the other two.